在一个自称超级无敌XXX马桶的孩子的坛子上看到的....

然后就孤狗了一下....

 

  马斯洛的需求层次理论是研究组织激励时应用得最广泛的理论。
马斯洛理论把需求分成生理需求、安全需求、社交需求、尊重需求和自我实现需求五类，依次由较低层次到较高层次。
　　生理需求：对食物、水、空气和住房等需求都是生理需求，这类需求的级别最低，人们在转向较高层次的需求之前，总是尽力满足这类需求。一个人在饥饿时不会对其它任何事物感兴趣，他的主要动力是行到食物。即使在今天，还有许多人不能满足这些基本的生理需求。管理人员应该明白，如果员工还在为生理需求而忙碌时，他们所真正关心的问题就与他们所做的工作无关。当努力用满足这类需求来激励下属时，我们是基于这种假设，即人们为报酬而工作，主要关于收入、舒适等等，所以激励时试图利用增加工资、改善劳动条件、给予更多的业余时间和工间休息、提高福利待遇等来激励员工。
　　安全需求：安全需求包括对人身安全、生活稳定以及免遭痛苦、威胁或疾病等的需求。和生理需求一样，在安全需求没有得到满足之前，人们唯一关心的就是这种需求。对许多员工而言，安全需求表现为安全而稳定以及有医疗保险、失业保险和退休福利等。主要受安全需求激励的人，在评估职业时，主要把它看作不致失去基本需求满足的保障。如果管理人员认为对员工来说安全需求最重要，他们就在管理中着重利用这种需要，强调规章制度、职业保障、福利待遇，并保护员工不致失业。如果员工对安全需求非常强烈时，管理者在处理问题时就不应标新立异，并应该避免或反对冒险，而员工们将循规蹈距地完成工作。
　　社交需求：社交需求包括对友谊、爱情以及隶属关系的需求。当生理需求和安全需求得到满足后，社交需求就会突出出来，进而产生激励作用。在马斯洛需求层次中，这一层次是与前两层次截然不同的另一层次。这些需要如果得不到满足，就会影响员工的精神，导致高缺勤率、低生产率、对工作不满及情绪低落。管理者必须意识到，当社求需求成为主要的激励源时，工作被人们视为寻找和建立温馨和谐人际关系的机会，能够提供同事间社交往来机会的职业会受到重视。管理者感到下属努力追求满足这类需求时，通常会采取支持与赞许的态度，十分强调能为共事的人所接受，开展有组织的体育比赛和集体聚会等业务活动，并且遵从集体行为规范。
　　尊重需求：尊重需求既包括对成就或自我价值的个人感觉，也包括他人对自己的认可与尊重。有尊重需求的人希望别人按照他们的实际形象来接受他们，并认为他们有能力，能胜任工作。他们关心的是成就、名声、地位和晋升机会。这是由于别人认识到他们的才能而得到的。当他们得到这些时，不仅赢得了人们的尊重，同时就其内心因对自己价值的满足而充满自信。不能满足这类需求，就会使他们感到沮丧。如果别人给予的荣誉不是根据其真才实学，而是徒有虚名，也会对他们的心理构成威胁。在激励员工时应特别注意有尊重需求的管理人员，应采取公开奖励和表扬的方式。布置工作要特别强调工作的艰巨性以及成功所需要的高超技巧等。颁发荣誉奖章、在公司的刊物上发表表扬文章、公布优秀员工光荣榜等用段都可以提高人们对自己工作的自豪感。
　　自我实现需求：自我实现需求的目标是自我实现，或是发挥潜能。达到自我实现境界的人，接受自己也接受他人。解决问题能力增强，自觉性提高，善于独立处事，要求不受打扰地独处。要满足这种尽量发挥自己才能的需求，他应该已在某个时刻部份地满足了其它的需求。当然自我实现的人可能过分关注这种最高层次的需求的满足，以致于自觉或不自觉地放弃满足较低层次的需求。 自我实现需求点支配地位的人，会受到激励在工作中运用最富于创造性和建设性的技巧。重视这种需求的管理者会认识到，无论那种工作都可以进行创新，创造性 并非管理人员独有，而是每个人都期望拥有的。为了使工作有意义，强调自我实现的管理者，会在设计工作时考虑运用适应复杂情况的策略，会给身怀绝技的人委派特别任务以施展才华，或者在设计工作程序和制定执行计划时为员工群体留有余地

一篇挺奇怪的文章,有经济学知识的孩子可以帮忙分析一下...懒得看英文的孩子,看留言里面有中文的确大体意思....

 

主要的问题在于...是不是有必要也象日本那么实施货币政策...

 

 

Why Japan will keep rates ultra low
By Anatole Kaletsky



IS THERE a rational explanation for the meltdown in global financial markets in the past month? Headlines have focused on uncertainty over US interest rates, after the change of leadership at the US Federal Reserve. But another, even more important, change in the global monetary environment has attracted less attention: the change in monetary policy at the Bank of Japan.
To the extent that easy money has been responsible for driving up global asset prices, the main source of this excess liquidity has not been America but Japan. In the past five years, the Bank of Japan has not just kept interest rates at zero but also flooded the markets in Tokyo with 30 trillion yen (roughly $300 billion) of excess reserves every night. This policy expanded Japan’s money supply to the same level as America’s, in an economy only one third the size — and much of this money has flowed abroad, resulting in ultra-low interest rates and rising asset prices around the world.



Just over two months ago, Japan decided to end this policy of “quantitative easing” — and the ripples from the country’s draining liquidity have been felt around the world. But this was only the beginning of Japan’s monetary transformation. At some point soon, a second shoe will drop: the Bank of Japan will start raising its overnight interest rate, which has been pegged at zero since 1998.

A steep rise in Japanese interest rates, with many analysts predicting a rise of as much as 2 per cent in the next 12 months, is arguably the biggest risk to financial markets in the year ahead. The good news is that, after spending a week in Tokyo, talking to politicians, businessmen and financial officials, I returned with a strong conviction that market fears are exaggerated on this point.

There are three reasons for believing that Japan’s short-term interest rates will remain near zero for another year or so and, even more importantly, that they will not rise above 1 per cent for the rest of this decade. The first is that policymakers in Tokyo have been saying quite explicitly that they would wait for some time after the end of quantitative easing before moving interest rates, in part to give banks the chance to learn how to operate in the new liquidity environment.

Since excess reserves in the Tokyo money market last week were still around 14 trillion yen, the end of quantitative easing seems to lie several weeks ahead. The BoJ’s preferred game plan seems to be to start with a quarter-point rate hike in the autumn and only to bring the overnight rate to 0.5 per cent by the end of the Japanese fiscal year next March.

This assumes, however, that the Japanese economy continues to grow steadily and financial markets do not fall out of bed. This is beginning now to look like a quite demanding assumption and points to a second reason for believing that Japanese interest rates will stay lower for longer than most investors expect.

While Japanese domestic demand will probably continue to grow quite robustly throughout this year, the US economy is now palpably slowing and Europe soon will follow suit. This will tend to strengthen the yen and weaken Japanese exports and, under these circumstances, the BoJ will probably want to avoid anything more aggressive than a 25-basis-point rate hike this year. Why, then, should the BoJ raise interest rates at all?

The most plausible answer is simply that “free” money, lent out by the BoJ at a zero rate, is fundamentally unhealthy in a market economy. Zero interest rates were justified by the extraordinary weakness of the Japanese economy, but everyone in Tokyo now agrees that more normal conditions should gradually be restored. But what would be a “normal” interest rate in Japan? This question points to the third and most important reason for expecting interest rates to remain below 1 per cent for a very long time.

The equilibrium interest rate in a normally functioning economy is roughly equal to the growth rate of GDP. GDP, in turn, consists of two components — the long-term potential growth of the real economy growth and the trend rate of inflation. The BoJ believes that Japan’s potential growth in the years ahead will be 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent, with the labour force shrinking by 0.5 per cent every year, while productivity grows by 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Meanwhile, prices are still on a falling trend. The BoJ’s “core inflation” index, which excludes food but includes oil prices, is now rising by 0.5 per cent and this has allowed the BoJ to declare victory in its war against deflation. But if oil prices were excluded from the core Consumer Price Index, as they are in America, inflation would still be negative. More importantly, the GDP deflator, a price indicator which measures broader movements in industrial costs as well as consumer prices, is still falling steeply — at an annual rate of 1.5 per cent.

Thus Japan’s 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent potential growth rate would translate into nominal growth of between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent, implying a natural interest rate of 1 per cent or below, at least until next year.

And what happens in 2008 and beyond, when Japan’s deflation may be truly over? By that time a new justification for ultra-low interest rates will come into play.

In April 2008, the Japanese Government will almost certainly start imposing very significant tax increases to narrow its enormous budget deficits. The only real debate in Tokyo today is over whether the consumption tax, which is currently at 5 per cent, should rise to 10 per cent immediately in 2008 or whether the pain should be spread over several years. With luck, raising taxes will prove less disastrous in 2008 than in 1997. But Japan’s policymakers will not want to take any chances.

If they set interest rates too high, Japan will relapse into recession, deflation and fiscal catastrophe. If they keep interest rates too low, the worst that might happen is an uptick in inflation, which would simply bring Japan into line with other countries.

The choice is obvious: Japanese interest rates will remain “surprisingly” low for many years to come. And these low interest rates, in turn, should continue to underpin surprisingly high prices in global financial markets.

 

 

从家里整理出了一个民工袋的书....自己掂了一下,发现自己居然搬不动....汗.....怎么办啊...

 

回头看看自己的房间,除了书架空了一点以外...其他基本都没有改变....汗....

 

下面的东西可怎么办啊....

 

听说今天是什么和平周,说是学联要去放风筝...不过今天忘记带手机了...呵呵....昨天很没头脑地和阿黄说不要寄太多东西..呵呵...其实想想阿黄除了要寄两瓶香水给他爸爸以外什么都没有要我寄...汗...

 

呃...还有什么好写的呢...今天天气不错,适合猫在一个角落睡觉...我去趟食堂吃个饭,然后就着手实施吧....

 

听着一首叫人质的歌,然后在CIEL看着blogs...想起朋友们过去的片段s,独自微笑着.觉得空荡的图书馆也不错...呵呵,宁静悠闲...3楼依旧酷热....带着耳机绝对是一种自我折磨.不过仍然悠闲美好.觉得自己拥有象蟑螂一样的适应能力.

 

早上翻出了很小很小的时候抄在笔记本上的话,歪歪扭扭的..很有意思..不过到了现在才明白了什么意思.很多事情是需要时间来消化的.发现自己已经长大了.那么突然..

 

和前辈聊天,谈到了爱情,突然发现其实距离本身就是分手的原因......释然.....今天早上在BU看见一个貌似为爱情苦恼的孩子,感觉争吵让他对爱情筋疲力尽,尝试着告诉他其实爱情有一半是在争吵中度过的.不知道自己为什么会有这样的感觉,不过谁叫俺主观捏...啊哈哈哈哈哈....小吵怡情，大吵伤身....

 

翻东西的时候,看见了爸爸写给我的信...字体是那么的熟悉...又是一阵微笑...发现纸和墨水才是保存过去的最好工具...条件应该是写一手漂亮的中国字

 

对了...最近孩子们都在疯狂的玩三国十一....偶也素....啊哈哈哈哈.....

 

 

 

 

整體性格 bulandis先生，穩健踏實，心胸寬闊；平易近人，注重禮節，能夠力爭上游；也有見機行事的一面。 待人性格 bulandis先生待人：有情有義；既喜歡與人同樂也能自得其樂；自信但不自大；排他性很強；大方坦蕩但也能保守秘密。 處世性格 bulandis先生處事：不會強迫別人；堅持自己的見解；立場堅定；把握重點兼顧細節；總是穩紮穩打；隨性自在隨機應變。 性格缺點 bulandis先生性格的缺點為：出手大方不在意金錢；有時候不特別關照自己人；偶爾會非常固執不輕易妥協。 價值觀 bulandis先生重視的價值觀為：勢力範圍；實用實際實惠；身份地位；較不擅長：好奇追新；興風作浪；與眾不同。 愛情性格 bulandis先生在愛情上喜歡循序漸進的進展，不刻意製造但享受浪漫，容易忌妒；較常表現：循序漸進，熱情豪爽，聰明機智。 金錢性格 bulandis先生的金錢觀：花錢有分寸不浪費也不小氣，能夠按照計劃用錢；容易把錢用於：享受美食，不凡品味的商品，追求新奇。     http://tw.starq.com/newstar2/okstarq.php